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文章摘要
易灵伟,吴胜安,张亚杰.气候场主成分逐步回归模型在海南岛汛期降水预测中的研究应用[J].海南大学学报编辑部:自然科学版,2019,37(2):.
气候场主成分逐步回归模型在海南岛汛期降水预测中的研究应用
PC stepwise Regression Forecasting Model of Climate Field of Hainan Island Flood Period Rainfall
投稿时间:2019-03-20  修订日期:2019-04-10
DOI:10.15886/j.cnki.hdxbzkb.2019.0024
中文关键词: 海南岛汛期降水; 主成分分析; 双重检验逐步回归; 气候统计预测
英文关键词: flood period rainfall in Hainan Island; principal component analysis; double test step-wise regression; climate statistical prediction
基金项目:海南省青年基金(HNQXQN201704)
作者单位E-mail
易灵伟 海南省气象局 气候中心 1124032918@qq.com 
吴胜安 海南省气象局 气候中心 wsa01@sohu.com 
张亚杰 海南省气象局 气候中心  
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中文摘要:
      计算与分析了海南岛汛期降水量场的主成分分布及分型特征,选取北半球500hPa高度场、北半球海平面气压场、太平洋海温场3个影响海南岛汛期降水的高影响因子,提取其前25个主成分作为预测因子,通过相关性筛选及逐步回归检验方法,确立降水场与筛选预测因子关系,建立相关高影响因子对主成分的预测方程,通过对高相关因子所构成气候场的主成分预测,最终实现海南岛汛期降水量场的预测将2016年海南岛汛期降水实况、现有多模式集合预报(MODES)汛期降水预测值及回归预测模型降水预测值进行比对,发现该模型对海南岛汛期降水及极值分布有较好的预测模拟能力,在实际业务中有一定的应用价值。
英文摘要:
      By calculating and analyzing the distribution and types of the principal components of the flood period rainfall in Hainan Island, choosing the 500 hPa height and the sea surface temperature of Pacific Ocean and the sea-level pressure in the Northern Hemisphere as predictors, through correlation screening and double test stepwise regression, a principal component stepwise regression prediction model of climate field for the flood period rainfall in Hainan Island is established. By applying this model to predict the flood period precipitation in Hainan Island in 2016, by comparing the result with the predict result of MODES system and the observed precipitation of 2016, it is found that the model is capable to predict the precipitation and its distribution in the flood period in Hainan Island.
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