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文章摘要
吴慧,胡德强,朱晶晶.海南省台风和暴雨灾害年景评估及其变化分析[J].海南大学学报编辑部:自然科学版,2018,36(4):.
海南省台风和暴雨灾害年景评估及其变化分析
Annual Assessment and Variation AnalysisS of Typhoon and Rainstorm Disaster in Hainan Province
投稿时间:2018-09-09  修订日期:2018-10-22
DOI:
中文关键词: 台风和暴雨灾害;年景评估 气候变化;海南省
英文关键词: typhoon and rainstorm disaster; annual assessment; climate change; Hainan Province
基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201835);海南省自然科学(414197,417298)
作者单位E-mail
吴慧 海南省气候中心;海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室 wuhui06@163.com 
胡德强 海南省气候中心;海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室;  
朱晶晶 海南省气候中心;海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室  
摘要点击次数: 53
全文下载次数: 20
中文摘要:
      利用海南省1982-2017年的气象观测资料、台风和暴雨灾情资料和社会经济数据,构建可较好去除物价上涨因素影响的灾害影响综合评估指数,并按照百分位法确定了灾害的气候年景等级阈值,给出历年灾害年景评估结果,分析了灾害年景的变化及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)研制的灾害年景评估方法可以客观地反映海南省台风和暴雨灾害的年景分布。(2)近36a海南省台风和暴雨灾害年景等级年际间的波动剧烈,且在20世纪80年代后期至20世纪末存在3-6 a的显著周期,21世纪初期存在短暂的4-5 a和2-3 a的显著周期。在年代际变化方面,1982-1996年期间灾害年景等级基本处于相对偏高的阶段,1997-2017年灾害等级进入相对偏低的阶段,但未发生突变。(3) 近36a尽管登陆海南岛的热带气旋的年最强登陆强度有增强趋势、热带气旋造成的重度区域性暴雨过程年频次有增加趋势,但由于登陆热带气旋年频数的减少以及防灾减灾能力的增强,使得台风和暴雨灾害的死亡人数、倒塌房屋面积和直接经济损失率均有减少趋势,导致台风和暴雨灾害年景有转好趋势。(4)海南省台风和暴雨灾害年景的年际变化与登陆海南岛的热带气旋年频数、年最强登陆强度,以及热带气旋造成的重度以上区域性暴雨过程年频次密切相关。
英文摘要:
      Based on the meteorological observation data, typhoon and rainstorm disaster data and socio-economic data from 1982 to 2017 in Hainan Province, a composite index for damage caused by typhoon and rainstorm is constructed, which can better remove the influence of rising price. The threshold value of the annual disaster assessment is determined according to percentile method. The results of annual disaster assessment are given, and its variations and influence factors are analyzed. The results show that: (1) Annual disaster assessment method we developed can objectively reflect the distribution of typhoon and rainstorm disasters in Hainan Province. (2) In the past 36 years, annual disaster situation grade of typhoon and rainstorm in Hainan Province has significant fluctuations in the inter-annual scale. It appears prominent periods of 3~6 years from the late 1980s to the end of the 20th century and short significant periods of 4~5 years and 2~3 years in the early 21st century. In terms of inter-decadal variations, the grade of disasters was basically at a relatively high stage from 1982 to 1996, and at a relatively low stage from 1997 to 2017, but no mutation occurred. (3) Although the annual strongest landing intensity of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island tends to increase and the frequency of heavy regional rainstorms caused by tropical cyclones has increased, the annual disaster situation of typhoon and rainstorm have turned better in the recent 36 years. This is due to the reduction of the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing and the enhancement of disaster prevention and reduction capabilities, which lead the decrease of the number of deaths, the area of collapsed houses and the direct economic loss rate of typhoon and rainstorm disasters. (4) The inter-annual variation of typhoon and rainstorm disaster is closely related to the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island, the strongest landing strength of tropical cyclones in the year, and the annual frequency of severe regional rainstorms caused by tropical cyclones.
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