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文章摘要
张建珍,王小琛,台啟龙,谢荣富,陈振斌.海南省交通运输业能源需求与碳排放预测分析[J].海南大学学报编辑部:自然科学版,2017,35(2):.
海南省交通运输业能源需求与碳排放预测分析
Predictions of Energy Demands and Carbon Emission of
投稿时间: 2016-11-30  最后修改时间: 2017-03-02
DOI:
中文关键词: 交通运输业;低碳发展;LEAP模型;情景分析;节能策略
英文关键词: Transportation industry; low-carbon development; LEAP model; scenario analysis; energy-saving measures
基金项目:中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目子课题(编号:CDM201300806)
作者单位E-mail
张建珍 海南大学 机电工程学院 zjzhen9635@hainu.edu.cn 
王小琛 浙江省衢州职业技术学院机电工程学院  
台啟龙 华南理工大学广州学院  
谢荣富 海南大学机电工程学院  
陈振斌 海南大学 zhenbin1208@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      摘要:为预测海南省交通运输业能源需求与碳排放情况,以美国、瑞典共同开发的模型“长期能源替代规划系统”(LEAP)和MATLAB为工具,在分析2005-2014年间海南省交通运输业能源消耗及碳排放现状的基础上,建立了海南省交通运输能源与环境LAEP模型,采用回归分析法,对海南省交通运输业的能源需求和二氧化碳排放量进行预测,并设置了基准、结构和政策3种情境,以2010年为基准期,估测了2015-2035年交通运输的能源需求量和二氧化碳排放量。分析结果表明,节能低碳情景下,2035年海南省能源需求和CO2排放量显著减缓,其中能源需求结构情境相比基准情境将降低11.45%,单位产值CO2排放则减少15.01%。政策情境相比基准情境将降低11.08%,单位产值CO2排放则减少12.24%。因此,调整交通运输结构比例和从政策角度降低各终端能源强度,有利于节能减排的实现。
英文摘要:
      Abstract: The situation of energy demands and carbon emission of transportation industry in Hainan province were analyzed.Based on the descriptive analysis of the data on the energy consumption and carbon emission of transportation in Hainan province from 2005 to 2014,the energy demand and environmental emissions for the transportation in Hainan Province were simulated by the LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System)in this paper.By regression analysis the energy demand and carbon dioxide emission of transportation industry in Hainan province were predicted and the potential of energy-saving and emission-reduction were estimated. Analysis results showed that the energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions by 2035 were expected to decline under the energy-saving and low-carbon scenario. Compared with baseline scenario,energy demand in the structure scenario would be reduced by 11.45%, and emissions of carbon dioxide 15.01%. Energy demand in the policy scenario would be reduced by 11.08%, and emissions of carbon dioxide 12.24%. Therefore, the conclusion could be drawn that energy-saving and emission-reduction can be realized by adjusting the proportion of transportation industries and decreasing the energy intensity in policy.
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